Feature Photo: Dylan Cease, RHP, Cubs
Prior to the 2014 MLB Draft, Dylan Cease looked like he was on his way to being a top-10 overall pick. As a teenager, he was throwing in the middle 90s with the makings of a plus curveball, yet, most scouts felt he was only scratching the surface of his ability. But as sometimes happens to young, hard-throwing pitchers, his elbow gave in. Cease would ultimately undergo Tommy John surgery following the 2014 draft.
His commitment to Vanderbilt, and his perceived drop in value with news of his injury, caused many teams to pass on him in the early rounds. The Cubs finally tabbed him in the sixth round, but even then it was not before they took gambles on a couple of other tough signs in Carson Sands (fourth round) and Justin Steele (fifth round) first.
After a month of negotiation, Cease signed for $1.5 million, and along with the contract came the added perks that go with playing for a big market MLB team. He would have access to top-notch medical care and rehab facilities. It turned out to be a wise move.
Less than 10 months after his surgery, Cease pitched his first extended spring training game, and he wasted no time showing his arm was healthy again. He sat 94 to 96 mph, and the velocity would keep rising through the spring of 2015. Cease’s starts drew a crowd of not just scouts and coaches, but also teammates who were curious to see just how hard he threw. Cease did not disappoint. He would eventually hit 100 mph in an Arizona Rookie League game I attended this summer. More importantly, Cease significantly cleaned up his delivery mechanics, mechanics that many felt might have contributed to his elbow injury in the first place. So not only was Cease throwing hard, he was now doing so without max effort.
But the curveball wasn’t quite there last summer. I saw Cease pitch at least a half dozen times in 2015, and he snapped off maybe two or three good curves. He would later say he just never quite got the feel for it. And his command was erratic. But all of those things were to be expected of 20-year-old in his first pro season. The Cubs were ecstatic that he was healthy, making the proper mechanical adjustments, and regaining his arm strength. If anything, they felt he was ahead of schedule.
Optimism about Cease was already in full bloom before spring training even started this year, but I hadn’t seen him pitch until about a week ago, in a live BP session. There was no gun on him, but he was obviously throwing hard. That was no surprise. What did surprise me, though, was that on a 1-2 count, Cease buckled well-regarded prospect Eddy Julio Martinez with a nasty hook that had excellent break and depth. Cease would throw a few more plus curves in that session – perhaps more than he threw during his entire Rookie League season in 2015.
Then it got really interesting this past Wednesday, when Cease started an intrasquad game on the Cubs’ Mesa Riverview back fields. With dozens of scouts and the Cubs front office in attendance, he gave everyone what they were hoping to see. One scout told me that Cease sat at 98 mph, and another told me he had him consistently between 96 and 99 mph. Granted, this was over two-inning, 37-pitch outing, but still, pretty damn impressive. He also had scouts buzzing about that same plus curve he displayed in that live BP session I saw for myself a week ago. Cease was particularly interested in his curveball Wednesday, checking in with the pitch charters after he was finished for the day. One told Cease what he was seemingly hoping to hear — that all the curveballs were below 80 mph. “They were good.” chimed another.
Cease didn’t throw his changeup, but when he threw it in his bullpen session earlier in the week, it was rather fringy. But considering the velocity difference between his fastball and his curveball, Cease may only require an average changeup to flash to lefties on occasion. He does show a feel for the pitch already, and he’ll have plenty of time to work on it as he moves up through the Cubs’ system.
As for his command in the intrasquad, it was still not as sharp as scouts had hoped. The Cubs challenged Cease by having him face a lineup of top hitting prospects such as Gleyber Torres, Ian Happ, Eloy Jimenez, Donnie Dewees, and Martinez. Torres and Happ in particular demonstrated solid plate discipline in their at-bats versus Cease. Torres drew a full count walk. Next, the polished Happ quickly jumped ahead 2-1 in the count before Cease threw what may have been the best curve he would throw all day. Happ just spat on it as it tumbled out of the strike zone.
It was a lesson Cease will need to learn as he continues to make progress. Major league hitters – and even advanced minor league hitters – will make him get his fastball over early in the count. They won’t bail him out by chasing the pitch nearly as often as the lower-level talent Cease had previously faced in high school or Rookie League ball.
I asked a few experienced scouts about the command of his fastball and none were the least bit concerned. “He’s exactly where he should be right now”, said one. “He’s hitting all the markers”, said another (markers that I interpret as being the return of his arm strength, improved curveball, and clear progression since last fall). In fact, that Cease was more eager to see what the velo was on his curveball with the charters, tells me that this was a specific development goal set for him during the offseason.
I also viewed mechanics that were, overall, solid, with the exception that he seemed to be pulling off toward his glove side, with his lead shoulder snapping down aggressively in his motion. That caused several fastballs to head outside against right-handers. Whether he was reaching back a bit more in this outing, or whether he was simply going full bore knowing that he was on a pitch count, either could be a reason for this mechanic to present as it did. But regardless, everyone seemed to think was easily fixed. My opinion was that he was reaching back for a little extra, and that in a starter’s role, smoother mechanics will have him sitting 2 to 3 mph less than what the guns were telling scouts on Wednesday.
In terms of his ability, and the progress he is making this spring, Cease has a chance to pitch for Class A South Bend, but considering he threw just 24 innings of Rookie ball in 2015, he may not start there right away. The Cubs could conceivably keep him at extended spring training to stretch him out and directly oversee his workload. Add in that Arizona Aprils are much warmer than those in South Bend, and that could be a factor leaning the Cubs to keep him in the desert for a bit longer. Once Cease is back on track in terms of building up his innings count, he could move quickly up the system.
Overall, Cease’s performance is clearly an encouraging development for the Cubs. For all the great young impact hitters they have developed and sent to the major leagues already, the organization has yet to produce a single impact starting pitcher for some time. With Dylan Cease leading a crop of interesting young arms in the Cubs’ system – that could change soon.
