2080 Prospect Spotlights: Notes From Around the Minor Leagues (8.20 Edition)

Kyle Martin - Scottsdale Scorpions - 2015 Arizona Fall League (Bill Mitchell)

Feature Photo: Kyle Martin, RHP, Red Sox

Dave DeFreitas and Mark Shreve spent some time looking at the Red Sox’ farm system over the past couple weeks, and check in with looks at RHP Kyle Martin in Pawtucket as well as RHP Mario Alcantara and SS Rafael Devers down in High A Salem, while Shreve also took in a recent start by Rockies prospect and LHP Sam Howard in the Double-A Eastern League.

Contributor Billy Henley updates our Report Library with new reports on Braves righties Aaron Blair and Rob Whelan down south at Triple-A Gwinnett, and we’ve loaded up an additional 20+ prospect videos into our Video Library, including Blue Jays prospects Rowdy Tellez, Dwight Smith Jr., Shane Dawson and John Anderson, and a dozen others, all playing for the Double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats.

Triple-A Prospect Spotlight

 

LogoMLBBOSKyle Martin, RHP, Red Sox (Triple-A Pawtucket, International League)
Ht/Wt:  6’7” / 230    B/T:  R/R    Age:  25 yrs, 7m

It was an impressive last two innings of mop-up relief for the big right-hander against the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, throwing 19 pitches (15 for strikes) in a 9-4 loss at Lehigh Valley on August 17, allowing a weak grounder for his lone hit, and striking out three of the six batters he faced, five of which were lefties.

Martin, a 2013 ninth-round pick of the Sox, has been used exclusively in a bullpen role after starting for most of his career at Texas A&M.  He has a fully developed build, with a high waist and a thick lower half and rolled shoulders.  Throwing only from the stretch, he toes the first-base side of the rubber, employing two rock steps to come set, employing a high leg lift, and uncoiling with a high glove hand and with some tilt to his shoulders.  He gets big extension off the mound with those long legs and a big push, and has some spine tilt towards first base as he fires from a 3/4’s arm angle with medium effort.  He shows the ball on the back side, and has a full arm circle with a quick arm action, though the effort and the spine tilt cause him to fall off to the first base side when finishing.  With some rather large moving parts to the delivery, it can be tough for such a large man to maintain consistent mechanics and control, but Martin is improving in this area, with an excellent 11.1 K/9 rate (good for second in the International League for pitchers with over 50 IP), and fringe-average 3.1 BB/9 rate, compared to 10.3 and 3.4, respectively, at Double-A Portland last year.

In this limited viewing he threw equal parts fastball (92-to-94 mph), slider (81-to-84 mph) and circle changeups (79-to-81 mph), and they each played up a few ticks because of the extension Martin gets off the mound.  He worked from ahead in the count to all six batters that he faced, which is a pretty clear pathway to his success, given the rather large delta he has working ahead (2.08 ERA) vs. behind (9.26 ERA).  His fastball comes in downhill with some mild cut action to it, but it was an otherwise straight offering thrown in on the hands of lefties to keep them from getting extended.  His slider was a solid out pitch used to finish off top Phillies outfield prospect Nick Williams (looking) and Cody Asche (swinging) with some tilt and average late bite.  The circle-changeup looked to be the most refined offering in his repertoire, a plus pitch thrown from the same release point as the fastball and replicating his arm speed deceptively well, and teasing the outside third against lefties, with the pitch showing late, sinking life and fade, and big-time 11-13 mph velo separation from the fastball that got hitters onto their front foot.

After just 42 IP at Double-A Portland last year, Martin has spent the 2016 season at Pawtucket, and the move doesn’t seem to have fazed him, as his numbers have improved over his 2015 campaign.  His ERA has dropped from 4.50 to 3.39, his BAA has dropped from .264 to .218, and his WHIP has been whittled from 1.40 to 1.16 (good enough for T5 in the International League if he qualified).  And the effectiveness against lefties in this viewing seems more the norm than the exception for Martin this year, with his season’s ERA of 2.28 and BAA of .200 across 23.1 IP, vs. 3.57 and .210 over 22.1 IP in 2015 with the Sea Dogs.  

With an average fastball, plus changeup, and a fringe-average slider in the arsenal, a middle reliever profile seems in his cards from here, though he’ll need to prove he can establish his fastball early to be successful in longer outings.  He could also get some time in a situational role vs. LHH, and pound this inside corners with all three pitches, as he did so well in this viewing.  On an out-of-contention club, he would be a candidate for a late-season call-up to get his feet wet in the big leagues this September, but with the parent club in the heat of a pennant race, big league innings will be hard to come by.  So I’d expect him to be a topic of conversation in spring training, and he could see some innings early next year, especially if the improvements in his command keep coming, and he stays focused on getting ahead in counts early and often. – Mark Shreve

 

Double-A Prospect Spotlight

 

LogoMLBCOLSam Howard, LHP, Rockies (Double-A Hartford, Eastern League)
Ht/Wt:  6’3” / 170    B/T:  R/L    Age:  23 yrs, 5m

Howard, a former third-round pick of the Rockies out of Georgia Southern in 2014, was bumped to the Yard Goats on June 9 after 11 starts for the High A Modesto in the California League, and it been a rough transition for the left-hander, as he’s been lit up 86 hits and a .314 BAA over his first 63.1 IP at the level, with a 24 walks and 48 strikeouts, and 1.74 WHIP to-date.  He’s seen some improvement since the All-Star break, going 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA over his last six starts, however.  My viewing on August 3 at Trenton was one of his better outings at the level, as he threw six innings of five-hit, one run ball, with two walks and six strikeouts in a 4-1 win, throwing 15 first-pitch strikes to the 22 batters he faced.

Howard has a thin, wiry frame and he hasn’t added any weight since being drafted – it’s a frame that could surely benefit from some additional muscle mass to assuage any fears of durability in a starter’s role.  His delivery starts with a simple rock step into a high leg lift, and he brings his throwing elbow up quickly as he uncoils, and that, along with a quick arm action, brings some sneaky deception to the delivery and adds a couple ticks to his velo.  He finishes online with a clean, balanced foot strike and finish, though on a few occasions he would show some limited extension off the rubber, getting out over his plant foot and falling off to the third-base side.

His fastball sat in the 90-to-92 mph range (T93), with a four-seamer showing some limited arm-side run, and a heavier version of the pitch showing the most effective movement, with a some glove-side sink. His slider was his best offering in this viewing, coming in at 84-to-87 mph and commanded well in the lower third, and getting to the back foot of righties with late bite and consistent effectiveness as a swing-and-miss offering.  He struggled with the changeup in this viewing, throttling back his arm speed at times and having it sit in the 81-to-83 mph range, resulting in more of a BP-fastball look with some light, straight tumble as the only meaningful shape.  It wasn’t an important part of his sequencing in this view, with his FB/SL combo generating the outs on the day, but he’ll clearly need the pitch working better to generate more consistent results over time.

While this viewing was a single, 107-pitch outing, it’s hard not to dream on his solid FB/SL combo playing up in a late-inning reliever role down the line, with the fastball gaining a couple ticks in shorter stints to make his slider even more effective, thanks to the additional velo separation.  But the Rockies’ plans don’t include anything but a starting role Howard right now. He’s got some post All-Star break consistency across multiple starts to draw on for confidence, so there’s no reason to think that his profile will change anytime soon – the ingredients are there, and adding some muscle mass – particularly in his lower half – certainly wouldn’t hurt at this point.  Having trouble with the changeup was probably a single-start anomaly, and replicating the fastball arm speed consistently should bring more movement and deception to the pitch.  Working more of them in to his sequencing to keep hitters off balance and play up the FB/SL combo will certainly help him get him through lineups over 6+ innings more effectively, and that would seem to be a point of development from here. – Mark Shreve

 

Class A Prospect Spotlights

LogoMLBBOSMario Alcantara, RHP, Red Sox (High A Salem, Carolina League)
Ht/Wt: 6’2” / 225    B/T:  R/R    Age:  23 yrs, 8m

Alcantara is one of those guys who has a huge arm and tantalizing potential when you see him live, but who has also struggled to put it all together since coming over from the Dominican Republic in 2011.  The velocity and life on the fastball is there – he sits 92-to-94 mph and was up to 95 for me at the end of July, while showing some run and tail late to the arm side, and cutting it to the glove side.  He also sports a ¾-depth slider that is inconsistent, but showed average to slightly above average at 82-to85 mph.  He has long legs and a high waist, and he can really whip the arm through the slot and generate some arm speed.  He gets good angle and while he has some effort, it is relatively smooth and repeatable.  Sounds enticing right?  So why does a kid with a plus fastball and chance for an above-average slider have a career 4.69 ERA through 412.1 IP as a professional?  I suppose it depends on who you ask, but the 5.1 BB/9 and the 6.7 K/9 career marks should shed a little light on what the issues are.  

Up until 2013, Alcantara was used almost exclusively as a starter – not uncommon for kids with big arms at the lower levels, as clubs want to see what they have due to the ever increasing value of quality starting pitching, plus the developmental value in getting 80-to-90 pitches every five days.  Alcantara struggled in the rotation as he really never was able to limit the walks and pitched to almost a 1:1 SO:BB ratio through 2013.  In 2014 he only made seven starts and 20 appearances out of the bullpen, however he did not fare much better out of the pen–23 hits through 15.1 IP with 10 walks and 11 K’s.  However, in 2015 as a full-time reliever, Alcantara responded to the tune of 4.6 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 and 8.1 Hits/9 through 74.1 IP – improvements from the respective 7.1, 5.0 and 12.5 marks through 43.1 IP the year prior.  That progression has continued in some respects in 2016 as Mario has only given up 45 hits through 67 .2 IP in his first season in High A.  However the K and BB rates has both regressed slightly (5.5 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9).  

What that tells me is that the late life in the zone I saw has been consistent, and that this kid is tough to square up.  While the slider is inconsistent, he did throw it for strikes in my look and that that has probably been the norm for him this year, and enough of a wrinkle to keep High A hitters off balance.  The drop in K’s shows that he is having trouble putting guys away, likely due to the inconsistency of his breaking ball, and not being in good counts often enough to get guys to chase.  

Ultimately, this all comes down to fastball command, something Mario has struggled with throughout his young career.  He has shown some signs that he may be making some strides, but he will need to do a lot better to continue climbing.  What you see at the field is exciting and makes you want to dream a bit, however when you look at the numbers you see a track record of inconsistency and concerning command issues.  At 23, he is considered a bit of a “mature arm”, so the upside is going to be limited going forward.  However he has the type of power stuff that could propel him upwards pretty quickly if the command clicks.  He is approaching his six-year free agent mark and should be a prime target for other clubs this offseason if Boston doesn’t resign him. My full report on Alcatera can be found here. – Dave DeFreitas

 

LogoMLBBOSRafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox (High A Salem, Carolina League)
Ht/Wt:  6’0” / 195    B/T: L/R     Age: 19 yrs, 9m

Young for his current level, Devers’ success in 2016 has him set to battle fellow infielder Yoan Moncada (2B, Double-A Portland, Eastern League) for the title of top Red Sox prospect.  Devers has a strong body, but isn’t the typical lanky, athletic teenager.  He has a little bit of a soft body right now, but it is more baby fat rather than a sign that the body has potential to get big.  He is a very good athlete and moves better than you would think for his size.  He has tremendous lower-half strength, and his great coordination can really be seen in how balanced the swing is.  He is very loose in his set up, and does a great job throwing his hands and getting the barrel out front.  He does have a hitch in the load when he almost points the bat at the mound as the pitch is being delivered, but he is so strong that he is able to overcome it without dropping the back shoulder and working underneath the ball too much (1.30 ground-ball rate in 2016 – 1.48 for his career).  He stays level and keeps the barrel in the zone, something that allows him to drive the ball to all fields with authority.  He may ultimately have to calm down the big bat waggle as he goes up against more consistent upper-level pitching, but right now everything appears to be on time and he is able to handle the better velo inside.  

One thing that separates him for me is the ability to control the strike zone at a such a young age.  Since his first year as a pro in 2014 he has a .350 OBP to go with a 2:1 SO:BB ratio–and that goes with his 29 doubles and 11 HR’s through his first 112 games at the High A level.  Defensively he was not overly tested in my short look, but he has good actions and showed some arm strength.  Obviously he stands to hold far more value if the defense plays at third base, and back to the body projection, I do think he stands to maintain the athleticism going forward.

Boston was keen to hold on to this kid at the deadline this year, and for good reason.  With Xander Bogaerts (SS, Red Sox) hitting his stride, Moncada positioned to impact the big league club in 2017 or even sooner, and with Andrew Benintendi (OF, Red Sox) already making a splash in his first taste of big league action, the Red Sox have a lot to be excited about.  Some have said that the success of those players makes Devers a prime trade candidate to bring back some pitching help -however this kid is still a couple years away from a big league field, and we all know that a lot can change in that length of time.  Devers has a chance to be an offensive force, and I think it’s more likely for the Sox to push someone else out the door, rather than getting flipped himself. – Dave DeFreitas