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2080 Evaluators on Coverage
Tucker Blair | Jeff Moore | Mauricio Rubio | John Arguello | Chris Rodriguez
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Desert Dogs Present Challenge for Evaluators
The Glendale squad finished the 2015 AFL season with a record of 13-15, underscoring a solid but unspectacular performance for the Desert Dogs in which the expected stars struggled and some underrated talent shined through. The on-field play proved to be a test for evaluators who did not get the looks they expected, or desired, with respect to some of the better known names on the roster, and were conversely presented with unexpected production from some players whose tools portended more modest outcomes.
Glendale’s top talent, J.P. Crawford (SS, Phillies), was a non-factor through five games before tearing a ligament in his thumb and departing the club to recuperate. The high-ceilinged but enigmatic Austin Meadows (OF, Pirates) sported impressive tools and a big league body but sputtered offensively over his 16 games of action, slashing .169/.194/.308 while striking out 12 times and walking just twice. Another bat who entered the AFL with high expectations, A.J. Reed (1B, Astros) appeared sluggish while putting together 46 inconsistent plate appearances and wound up departing Arizona early due to reported knee issues.
While the most highly-touted positional talents underwhelmed, Derek Fisher (OF, Astros) and Reese McGuire (C, Pirates) continued their progress towards an everyday Major League job, impressing evaluators on both sides of the ball. After struggling at the plate for most of his pro career speedster and defensive standout Adam Engel (OF, White Sox) exploded offensively en route to earning the league’s title of Most Valuable Player. A trio of Los Angeles prospects – Jacob Scavuzzo (OF, Dodgers), Kyle Farmer (C/3B, Dodgers) and Brandon Trinkwon (3B, Dodgers) – all produced for the Desert Dogs, with Farmer showing the most well-rounded profile and Scavuzzo’s power winning out as the best impact tool among the triumvirate.
The pitching staff lacked “umph,” though Jharel Cotton (RHP, Dodgers) stood out for his big fastball/changeup pairing and Trevor Williams (RHP, Pirates) kept the worm population in check thanks to his heavy low- to mid-90s fastball. Ralston Cash (RHP, Dodgers) worked with an average fastball and sweeping slider that was particularly effective against right-handed bats, while Tom Windle (LHP, Phillies) dealt with slightly more velo and slightly less breaking ball action from the left side.
Robinson Leyer (RHP, White Sox), Peter Tago (RHP, White Sox) and Brandon Brennan (RHP, White Sox) all kissed the mid-90s with their respective fastballs, but lacked standout secondary offerings across the board and struggled to command their arsenals.
Who ya got?
Three 2080 evaluators each make the case for one of their “guys”
Jharel Cotton, RHP, Dodgers
Jharel Cotton, RHP, Dodgers (Triple-A)
Ht/Wt: 5’11″/195 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 10m
While he lacks the prototypical size and potential durability of a starter, Cotton has the quality and quantity of ingredients to stick in the rotation long term. Cotton’s delivery has some effort with plus arm speed, with a loose arm allowing his fastball to sit 91 to 93 mph while topping out at 95. His changeup is a present plus pitch that plays well off of the fastball, showing extreme fade and deception. During my viewing, he spun off the best sequence I saw in the AFL – a 95 mph fastball, 95 mph fastball, and a 79 mph changeup for a strikeout. Cotton also displays a curveball that flashes average at 78 to 80 and is a suitable third offering, giving him enough depth in the arsenal to turn over lineups at the upper-levels, and paving the way towards a future as a potential mid-rotation starter. –Tucker Blair
Reese McGuire, C, Pirates (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’0″/181 | B/T: L/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 20y, 9m
McGuire’s defensive prowess matches the hype, and it gives him as high of a floor as any prospect in baseball. At the plate, he’s fundamentally sound, keeping the barrel through the zone and showing average feel for squaring the ball up. While McGuire has only average bat speed, and lacks impact with the barrel, he should provide enough value with his glove, arm, and blocking ability to warrant everyday playing time. Repeated looks have left me with questions about whether he is a future first-division catcher whose bat also carries its weight, but there is no doubt as to his defensive chops at a high-value position, or his future contributions on that side of the ball. –Jeff Moore
Austin Meadows, OF, Pirates (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’1″/190 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 20y, 7m
Meadows’ development has come a long way since his high school days. He showed a compact swing with quickness to the ball and impressive feel for the barrel. It’s a swing he’s grown into over the years, and as his development continues he should grow into some power, as well. Meadows is a plus runner at present but that should scale back some as he grows into his broad frame over time. He’s not a lock to stick in center but his bat profiles just fine in left. –Mauricio Rubio
You should know about…
Aggregate write-ups based on in-person AFL views by 2080 evaluators and industry contacts
Adam Engel, OF, White Sox (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’1″/215 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 11m
A double-plus runner with good instincts in the outfield and on the bases, Engel has plenty of foundational value built into the profile. Through his first 1,300 professional at bats, however, the former Louisville Cardinal struggled to produce in the box, showing a solid approach but negligible impact against single-A arms. Engel broke out of that funk during the 2015 AFL campaign, earning MVP honors by leading the league in batting average (.403), on-base percentage (.523) and slugging (.642) while drawing more walks than strikeouts (16 versus 11) over his 86 plate appearances. The loud offensive performance was comforting to evaluators who have bought into the value Engel can bring in the field and on the bases, though most believe this was more hot streak than offensive renaissance. He likely profiles best as a fourth outfielder or second-division regular
Derek Fisher, OF, Astros (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’1″/207 | B/T: L/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 22y, 3m
The former UVA standout put together a strong 2015 between Low A Quad Cities and High A Lancaster, displaying big raw power and showing a discerning eye at the plate. During his 17 games with Glendale in the AFL, Fisher gave evaluators much of the same, though his approach in the box bordered on passive at times and he showed flashes of fatigue on the field via some hitchiness in his swing and a little less explosiveness than he had displayed in the past. Fisher has a chance for an above-average hit tool and above-average to plus power depending on how well he is able to make adjustments to more advanced spin at the upper-levels. He covers enough ground to handle center field, but probably fits best in left long term where his bat should play. The next stop on the developmental track is likely Double-A Corpus Christi to start 2016, with an eye towards a Major League debut in 2017.
Kyle Farmer, C/3B, Dodgers (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’0″/200 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 25y, 3m
A relatively recent convert to catching – Farmer started working out in earnest behind the plate in 2013 after spending his collegiate career as a shortstop – things are starting to fall into place behind the plate for the former eighth-rounder. Farmer received positive reviews after the 2014 AFL season, with evaluators impressed by his defensive progress, and continued the trend in 2015, showing solid footwork and side-to-side actions while flashing pop times around and below 2.00 seconds. There’s solid arm strength and accuracy to work with, as well as more than enough durability to handle the trials and tribulations of a professional backstop. He’s a capable defender at the hot corner, as well, where his foot work, hands and arm all play. The offensive profile is uninspiring but solid, as the former Georgia Bulldog will flash some pop and has amassed a decent track record of steady production through his first 250-plus pro games. There may not be impact here, but Farmer projects as a solid everyday option or valuable back-up on a first-division club
Trevor Williams, RHP, Pirates
Trevor Williams, RHP, Pirates (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’3″/230 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 7m
During his three years at Arizona State scouts came to know Williams as a workhorse capable of filling-up the strike zone – a reputation that has stayed with the righty through his time as a professional. The former Sun Devil switched organizations in the middle of the AFL season, coming over to Pittsburgh from Miami in late-October, and proceeded to log an impressive 7.1 innings pitched, striking out five while allowing just one run, five hits and no walks. Williams doesn’t miss tons of bats, but his heavy fastball, which comes with solid downhill plane, does a good job of avoiding barrels, drawing regular soft contact and producing plenty of ground balls (as evidenced by his 7.0 groundout to air out ratio with Glendale). The heater can climb to the mid-90s but plays more frequently in the 90 to 93 velo band. The secondaries are fringy across the board, including a low-80s slider with short horizontal action and a flat low-80s changeup, and the in-zone command is below-average. Williams has the durability to endure a starter’s workload, but his effectiveness at the highest level will likely hinge on his ability to continue to produce groundballs against more advanced bats, as well as whether or not he can tease a little more effectiveness out of his off-speed offerings. In relief he profiles as a groundball specialist with late-inning upside.
A.J. Reed, 1B, Astros (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’4″/240 | B/T: L/L | Age (as of 12/1/15): 22y, 7m
Reed grew his prospect status in 2015 as much as anyone, slashing .340/.432/.612 across two levels for the Astros and launching 34 round-trippers over his 622 plate appearances. The hulking first baseman was a different player in the AFL, with evaluators noting decreased mobility initially attributed to fatigue and later tied to reported issues with his knee. While the double-plus raw power was readily visible during batting practice, the performance simply didn’t carry over the field as Reed struggled to make consistent hard contact before departing a little over halfway into the season. A mediocre fall has not done anything to dim the shine of Reed’s explosive year, and expectations remain high for the former second-rounder entering 2016. Provided he returns to the field healthy and recharged, Reed could get a long look this spring with a chance for a promotion to Houston later this summer.
Notes from the stands…
Quick hits from the notebooks of the 2080 evaluators in the stands
Stephen Brault, LHP, Pirates (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’1″/175 | B/T: L/L | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 7m
Skinny frame; true three-quarters arm slot with average arm speed and stab on the backside; steady head; inverted foot strike; fastball 90 to 92 mph, with mild run and above-average to plus command; slider 80 to 81, loose movement with above-average command; changeup flashes above-average, 79 to 82 with fade and drop. –-Mauricio Rubio
Scott Barlow, RHP, Dodgers (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’3″/170 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 11m
Skinny frame with long limbs; high three-quarters arm slot; long arm action and average arm speed; fastball 88 to 91 with downhill plane and arm side run; average slider, 81 to 82 with sweeping action; flashed 72 mph curve with mild depth; firm changeup 81 to 85; inconsistent release point across arsenal; middle relief profile. –-Jeff Moore
Jacob Scavuzzo, OF, Dodgers
Jacob Scavuzzo, OF, Dodgers (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’4″/185 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 21y, 10m
Sturdy build; every bit of listed 6-foot-4 frame with good strength; looks thicker than his listed 185-pounds; wide shoulders and a strong lower half; loose swing with above-average bat speed; aggressive approach; susceptible to quality arm-side spin; above-average raw power with leveraged swing; game power plays down to average due to contact issues; fringe defender at outfield corner; routes are fine, but poor first step and relies on athleticism to close on balls; can play LF/RF for now but looks destined for first base where he’s taken groundballs; below-average foot speed, digs around 4.4 home-to-first; potential platoon bat/backup profile. –-Chris Rodriguez
Andrew Knapp, C, Phillies (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’1″/190 | B/T: S/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 24y, 1m
Broad shoulders with room to project further growth; replicates swing from both sides of the plate; above-average bat speed; moderate barrel control from both sides; moderate leverage; creates backspin and carry; plus raw power; average receiving skills, fringe average mobility; potential everyday backstop. –-Mauricio Rubio
Trey Michalczewski, 3B, White Sox (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’3″/210 | B/T: S/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 20y, 9m
Tall, lean, athletic body; above-average bat speed; mild barrel control; trouble picking-up spin; leveraged swing; above-average raw power, will likely play down in game due to below-average hit tool; rough hands in the field; choppy foot work; above-average arm strength; below-average arm accuracy, especially on the run; potential everyday third baseman with further refinement. –-Mauricio Rubio
J.D. Davis, 3B, Astros (High A)
Ht/Wt: 6’3″/215 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 22y, 7m
Sturdy frame; average defensively at third base with adequate range to line; plus-plus arm; average bat speed; long, leveraged swing with holes; lacks balance at plate with front side leaking open; plus raw power; swing-and-miss will hinder hit tool and power profile; potential second-division regular. –-Tucker Blair
Brett McKinney, RHP, Pirates (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’2″/225 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 25y, 1m
Stocky build; three-quarters arm slot with stab on the back side; above-average arm speed; stiff delivery creates stress on upper half; exerted delivery; fastball 90 to 93 mph (T94) with life; erratic command to glove-side; curveball 77 to 79 with depth; middle relief profile. –-Tucker Blair
Tom Windle, LHP, Phillies
Tom Windle, LHP, Phillies (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’4″/215 | B/T: L/L | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 9m
Tall with muscular frame; three-quarters arm slot; plus arm speed; deep stab; front side opens up and becomes out of sync; inverted landing; exerted delivery; fastball 93 to 95 mph (T96) with downhill plane and life; flashed average slider 86 to 87 with short break; replicates arm speed with fastball/slider; middle relief profile. –-Tucker Blair
Brandon Dixon, 2B/OF, Dodgers (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’2″/215 | B/T: R/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 10m
Athletic frame with broad shoulders; 4.28 home-to-first; speed played better in outfield than on the bases; presently below-average defender in center field with inconsistent reads and routes; room to grow to average defender with further work; average arm; solid at second base with range and footwork present; above-average bat speed; noisy hands; average barrel control with some leverage in the swing; unbalanced stance with slight load; below-average approach; struggles with spin; below-average raw power; interesting player lacking a standout tool; reserve profile. –-Tucker Blair
Edubray Ramos, RHP, Phillies (Double-A)
Ht/Wt: 6’4″/205 | B/T: S/R | Age (as of 12/1/15): 23y, 8m
Limited look; large frame; three-quarters arm slot; plus arm speed; exerted delivery; fastball 93 to 95 mph (T96) with life and run; flashed plus slider at 85 with hard tilt. –-Tucker Blair
