The Trickle-Down Effect of Fowler’s Return to the Cubs

Feature Photo, Javier Baez, IF, Cubs

LogoMLBCHCEntering the final days of February, the Chicago Cubs’ outfield was looking thick in depth, but the defensive alignments weren’t ideally suited for the talent they had on the roster. Kyle Schwarber’s performance in left field in the 2015 NLCS belied the athleticism present when he played behind the plate, but his outfield glove will never be a plus asset. Jorge Soler has a tremendous arm, but his reads in the outfield are quizzical at times, and that hindered his effective range.

Both of those factors would have placed a tremendous amount of pressure on the newly-minted $200 million man, Jason Heyward, this season. He’s a natural right fielder, and his instincts allow his range to play up to a high degree, but even his above-average athleticism in the outfield would’ve been tested in center, sandwiched between Schwarber and Soler.

Which is why Dexter Fowler’s return to the Cubs is so meaningful.  The Cubs’ outfield defensive alignments gain some added flexibility.  And they now present a lineup, top-to-bottom, that will be a pain for opposing pitchers to navigate. But their addition of Fowler mucks up the major league aspirations of a few younger players who were projected to see some playing time at varying points of the 2016 season.  Some will now have to earn their major league reps by taking on different roles with the club, and some may be sacrificed in the trade market to help the Cubs strengthen their 25-man roster as they head for another widely-predicted run into the postseason this year.

Javier Baez, IF, Cubs

The trickle-down effect of the Fowler deal starts with its impact on Javier Baez.  Baez was once seen as a potential cornerstone player for the franchise, but his profile has since taken a hit after a tumultuous 2014 campaign which saw him struggle to produce at the start of the year at Triple-A Iowa, and struggle again at the end of the season after his major league debut later that year. Baez produced well enough when he got playing time with the Cubs again in 2015, but his role in 2016 will likely be that of a utility player who will see time all over the diamond, including all four infield positions and some spot time in center field as a backup.

Soler has an outfield-only profile, so after the Fowler signing, finding playing time for him will be a bit trickier, since the Cubs have Baez and super-utilityman Ben Zobrist to back up all three outfield regulars. Using Soler as a fourth outfielder seems like a waste of his potential, and with little left to prove in the minor leagues, the lack of major league at-bats might stunt his development this year. He could see some reps in left field if the Cubs decide to turn to Schwarber as a personal catcher of sorts for Kyle Hendricks – a possibility raised by Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune – but at this point, moving him in the open market for a mid-rotation starter or an impact arm in the bullpen might make more sense than having him toil behind Baez and/or Zobrist on the depth chart, getting sparse playing time on a crowded major league roster.

Arismendy Alcantara, IF/OF, Cubs

The same could hold true for Arismendy Alcantará, who will likely start the season at Triple-A Iowa. He’ll also find it difficult getting playing time at the major league level. While his strength is that he is major league-ready as a utility defender all over the diamond, he still gets pull happy, and he hasn’t matured his plate discipline yet.  He should benefit from some added seasoning in Iowa, though depending on injuries, Alcantará could also get a call up to the majors at some point this year.

Like Baez, Albert Almora figured to get some playing time by 2016, but Fowler’s presence complicates his major league arrival time. Almora has also seen the initial shine come off his profile as he progressed through Single A and Double-A  in 2014-15. Plate discipline is the main concern with Almora, and while it does manifest itself in low walk numbers, it also shows up in the type of contact he makes. As an amateur, Almora showed great barrel feel and the ability to make hard contact on damn near any pitch he wanted to. It helped him punish lower level pitching as a young pro, but his ability to discern his pitch from the pitcher’s pitch didn’t develop as he climbed to Double-A. Almora is still a high-contact hitter but the strong, authoritative contact he showed in Low A is showing up less often in the advanced levels. Almora will still have a future major league role, though.  He is a plus defensive center fielder, and that type of defense is at a premium around the major leagues right now. The next steps for Almora include proving that he can make enough contact to earn some major league at-bats.

Billy McKinney was looking like a potential September ‘16 call-up before the Fowler signing, and while Fowler doesn’t directly impact his ETA, McKinney could, like Soler, become expendable as the Cubs tool up for a postseason run. He just flat out hits, and he’s done it at every level he’s been at. He posted a .300/.371/.454 slash last year between High A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Tennessee, and his profile works as a stark contrast to Almora’s in that the bat is what will carve him out a major league role. Right now, McKinney projects as a left fielder who could potentially spot start in center.

Ian Happ, OF, Cubs

Before the Fowler signing, projecting Ian Happ to see some playing time at the majors in 2016 could be considered aggressive, but it’s not completely out of the question, and his debut would most likely be as an outfielder, though Happ also plays second base. Fowler’s presence in the outfield and the Cubs’ crowded infield makes his major league ETA harder to project now, and 2016 seems less likely. Happ shows tremendous feel for the strike zone and he knows what pitch he wants to hit. He makes hard contact but it’s not a swing conducive to big time over-the-fence power. His game will feature more gap-oriented power and on-base skills. His defensive home in the big leagues is a question mark, but Happ shows a lot of utility in the infield and in the outfield.