The Grind: Prospect evaluations from a veteran scout

Brent Honeywell, Rays, Tampa Bay Rays, Rays prospects, Tampa Bay Rays prospects
Brent Honeywell - Peoria Javelinas - 2016 Arizona Fall League (Bill Mitchell)

Feature Photo:  Brent Honeywell, RHP, Rays

In this week’s column, I take a closer look at the Rays’ Triple-A Durham affiliate as they traveled for a three-game series against the PawSox, highlighting Chin-Wei Hu’s great start to the season out of the bullpen, and the progress of RHP Jacob Faria.  I also got to see the live arm of lefty Blake Snell, who still flashes potential as a future number-two starter despite some control issues that have  him returning to Triple-A from the parent club for some refinement; a rough outing for 22-year-old Brent Honeywell, and a look at 21-year-old Willy Adames, who is holding his own playing in Triple-A at such a young age.

 

2080 Prospect Spotlights
Durham Bulls (TAM) – Pawtucket Red Sox (BOS) Series
Triple-A International League
May 26-28, 2017

 

Tampa Bay Rays Prospect Spotlights

 

Blake Snell, LHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham, International League)
Ht/Wt: 6’4”/200 lbs.      B/T L/L      Age (as of April 1st, 2017): 24y, 6m

Snell is a semi-power starter who began the year in Tampa Bay, but was optioned to Durham after struggling with his control (5.4 BB/9) and working with plenty of traffic on the bases (1.62 WHIP) in the big leagues in his 42 innings of big league work. I viewed his first start against the PawSox on May 26.

Snell has a well-proportioned, athletic frame and an overall plus athlete. He has the ability and talent to be a Role 70 number two starter with all four of his pitches projecting as plus offerings, but his command and control are his biggest drawback at present. He needs to learn to economize his pitches and since arriving at Triple-A he’s still struggling, walking eight in 18 1/3 innings of work, though those struggles are being offset by the raw stuff, as he’s struck out 29 batters over that time.

Snell pitches out of a no windup, abbreviated delivery and landing on a stiff front side, which causes most of his command and control issues. He needs to soften his front side and repeat his delivery better because at times he’ll overthrow and spin off to the first-base side. Keeping his delivery together longer and staying over the rubber is key to his consistency.

Snell sports a double-plus fastball ranging from 93-to-97 mph, but he sits mostly at 94 mph with run bore and tail to both sides of the plate, and he can also get late sinking action which, when he’s on and locating down in the strike zone, gets you a pitch with double-plus movement and a true swing-and-miss offering. While the command is presently below average – even erratic – at present, there is some room for it to develop into fringe-average.

His curveball is plus with varied shapes and actions, from a 12-to-6 downer, to one with 11-to-5 break with good two-plane depth. His slider is also plus, with short, quick cutting action that backs up to righties. He can also miss bats with his plus changeup, which shows late fading action particularly versus right-handers but he’ll also use it use versus left-handers on occasion.

Snell can be dominating if and when he puts the whole package together. His biggest drawback at this point is that he needs to harness his command and control, but with some adjustments the delivery is fixable. And remember, he’s still only 24 years old. He has a ceiling of Role 70 number two, with a floor of a Role 60 number three if the command and control doesn’t come around. The arsenal is too good to run away from, but he’ll probably top out at fringe-average control, but his strikeout rates should be high enough to offset that concern.

 

Jacob Faria, RHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham, International League)
Ht/Wt: 6’4”/235 lbs.      B/T: R/R       Age (as of April 1st, 2017): 23y, 10m

Faria has a prototypical starter’s frame: strong, durable, and fully developed. He works from an abbreviated windup with a short, compact arm action and there is some effort in the delivery, coming out of a high ¾’s slot to generate both good angle and hard downward plane. He’s averaging 3.4 bb/9 and 12.9 K/9 through his first 58 2/3 innings this year, though he left this start after working four innings in my May 27 view versus Pawtucket after being struck in left calf by a batted ball (he did not miss his next turn in the rotation).

Faria has above-average fastball velocity (91-to-94 mph), pitching mostly at 93 mph with run & boring action to both sides of the plate and late ride and life. The fastball can flatten out when he overthrows, leaving it elevated in the strike zone, but overall it has above-average movement. He’s aggressive with the pitch and throws strikes with above-average command.

His fringe-average curveball is in the 74-to-77 mph range, with 11-to-5 break, and with some two-plane action at times, but he does not use it often and it can be inconsistent when he casts and doesn’t get out front with it, but there is enough potential in it for it to develop into an average pitch. His fringe-average cutter has short quick action at times with deception. He’ll use both breaking balls to keep hitters honest, and both pitches make it difficult for hitters to sit on either the fastball or his plus changeup at 81-to-84 mph. The changeup is thrown with same arm speed as the fastball with good deception and late fading action to both sides of the plate, and he’s not afraid to throw it in any count to hitters on either side of the plate – on a few occasions even pitching backwards with it.

From what I was able to see on this date, he looks like he is reverting to his 2016 season when he exhibited above-average control, with a 2.48 BB/9 rate over 151 inning at both Double-A and Triple-A, and I would expect to see an average command and control profile when he gets to the big leagues. I see in Faria a projectable Role 50 workhorse number four starter, with potential upside of a Role 60 number three if the breaking ball improves.

 

Chin-Wei Hu, RHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham, International League)
Ht/Wt: 6’1” /230 lbs.     B/T: R/R     Age (as of April 1st, 2017): 23y, 7m

Hu is a converted starter who is flourishing in his first year the bullpen for the Bulls in 2017. He has a compact, strong, and durable frame, and he works from the stretch exclusively now, coming out of a 3/4’s arm slot with a long arm action, average arm circle, and a quick arm. And he is a strike thrower, pounding the zone aggressively particularly with his fastball, and it shows in his control numbers, with an elite 1.157 BB/9 rate over his first 24 1/3 innings, following up a plus-graded 2.31 BB/9 across 147 1/3 innings as a starter at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last year.

Hu’s fastball velocity has really jumped up since going to the bullpen from what I’ve seen in the past, and his stuff really plays up in his new role. His fastball is a plus to double-plus offering siting 94-to-96 mph, and the pitch can show run and darting action to both sides of the plate, with late life and plus movement. He’s aggressive, and really pounds the zone with above-average command of the pitch

His slider is a plus pitch in the 86-to-89 mph range that shows tilt and depth and good deception, though it will back up on occasion. He can also dial up some hard horizontal break with cutter-like action at on occasion. He throws his above average changeup hard, and it’s an above-average pitch at 87-to-88 mph that shows late fading action and tumble with good arm speed, though he’d benefit from some additional velo variation between the pitch and his slider.

Even with three above-average or better pitches, Hu still profiles best out of the bullpen as a Role 60, right-handed set-up man with occasional closer ability. He has the stuff to be a number four man in a major league rotation, but his move to the bullpen and the resulting jump in his fastball velo plays up the secondary stuff, and that advantage could be lost if he were asked to turn over lineups as a starter.

 

Brent Honeywell, RHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham, International League)
Ht/Wt: 6’2”/180 lbs.      B/T: R/R      Age (as of April 1st, 2017): 22y, 2m

Honeywell is one of the more highly acclaimed prospects in the Rays’ system, though he didn’t throw particularly well in my viewing on May 28, getting roughed up for eight hits, three home runs, and seven earned runs over three innings of work, while striking out three and walking one.

His uniqueness as a prospect comes from a true five-pitch mix of a fastball, slider, screwball, curveball and changeup, which is impressive, if not extreme in variety. He could simplify some, and probably benefit from dialing back – or eliminating – the curveball and stick to his slider

Honeywell pitches from a no windup, abbreviated delivery, and he’s got a long arm action and a wrap in the back that he looked to have some trouble getting out of, and looks to be a contributing factor to some trouble repeating, which I saw I this view, and cascade down into command issues. On occasion, he was overthrowing with some back arch.

His fastball sat at a comfortably plus 94-to-96 mph, with hard run and tail action to both sides of the plate and with average movement, though the majority of pitches were in the lower end of the velo band. The offering will flatten out and elevate when he overthrows it, and those mistakes up in the strike zone become hittable, which when you are working with a 0.71 GO/AO ratio can lead to some big flies off the bat as seen in this viewing. He exhibited below-average command in this view, and had trouble locating the ball in the lower third, leaving many centered on the plate. I do see the projection of his fastball to maintain the plus velocity and average movement, with the potential to reach average command through improvements in his delivery and arm action.

Honeywell shows a usable, 45-grade slider (80-to-84 mph) with fringe-average action that can take both a slurvy shape, and also getting some occasional sweeper action. His curveball is below average at 77-to-79 mph with big 12-to-6 break. He uses the slider/curveball combo to setup his best pitch at present, which is the plus screwball at 76-to-79 mph, coming in with dive and turnover action away from left-handed hitters and into righties with above-average horizontal action, late fade, and plus deception to make it a real weapon. His big issue right now is that he gets in trouble when he’s unable to throw either the curve or the slider for strikes, as he did in this view, showing below-average command of both pitches.

His fifth pitch is an average changeup in the 80-to-83 mph range, with fading action that can flash similarities to his screwball in shape, just with a few ticks more velo, and with average command.

It’s hard to remember that this kid is still pitching in Triple-A at 22 years old. His control profile is double-plus and clearly ahead of his command at this point, and his control numbers continue trending in the right direction, though the quality of the strikes has the downside effect of increased contact lately. He’s walking just 1.4-per-nine innings this year, in 2017 after walking 1.96 BB/9 across High A and Double-A stops in 2016. He could really turn a corner if he can get the fastball command up to at least average, and throw more quality strikes to set up the secondary stuff. If the command improves, particularly with the fastball, there’s a number-three starter coming up to the Rays in the not-too-distant future.

 

Willy Adames, SS, Rays (Triple-A Durham, International League)
Ht/Wt: 6’0”/200 lbs.      B/T: R/R      Age (as of April 1st, 2017): 22y, 9m

Playing at the Triple-A for the first time this year at just 21 years old, Adames is more than holding his own at shortstop, slashing .246/.324/.367, and showing a strong, projectable body with average actions in the field, with soft, quick sure hands.

Adames has a good defensive clock who shows an idea how to play hitters. I have some concern with his first-step quickness as it’s just average, as is his range into the 5/6 hole, and that quickness could conceivably slow if gets any bigger physically.  He does have an above-average arm with good carry and average accuracy, but the accuracy suffers on occasion when he’ll hold onto the ball to long to load up his arm on occasion. He’ll need to work on throwing more when on the run and from angles, but the raw arm strength is there.

At the plate, Adames has quick hands with loose wrists, with a quick bat, and he gets bat head out with plus bat speed. He has above average barrel control keep his hands inside the ball, and can manipulate the barrel with a gap-to-gap, line-drive oriented stroke. Adames uses the entire field, and has shown his extra-base hitting ability steadily, with 16 this season after 48 in 2016 at Double-A and 41 at 2015 in Class A ball. He gets some occasional loft and leverage in his swing and shows projectable average-or-better in-game power potential.

Adames has a plan at the plate. Though he is struggling early in the year, he does show the feel and instincts for hitting, and also has a solid two-strike approach. While he can work a walk when it comes around, his strikeout rates, which have floated between 21 and 27% for the past three seasons, will need to settle down as he matures, through he is on quite a learning curve in Triple-A this year. He’s below-average runner out of the box (4.39 seconds home-to-first) who looks better underway, but speed won’t be a part of his overall game.

Adames has the tools and projection to be a solid, offensive-minded shortstop, with a plus hit tool, average power, and average, non-flashy defensive ability. His lack of plus defensive ability makes him more of a role 55, above-average major league regular.