The Grind: Prospect evaluations from a veteran scout (Florida Fire Frogs)

Touki Toussaint, RHP, Braves, Braves prospects
Touki Toussaint - Arizona Diamondbacks 2015 extended spring training

Feature Photo: Touki Toussaint, RHP, Braves
(Pictured w/ Diamondbacks in 2015)

 

Finishing off my looks down in the Florida State League, here are my thoughts on four Braves’ prospects from the recent Tampa Yankees-Florida Fire Frogs series: right-hander Touki Toussaint, whose stuff has regressed this year; left-hander Alex Minter, who, when healthy, has the look of a future Role 60 bullpen piece for the Braves;  third baseman Austin Riley, a power bat whose ultimate defensive home may take him off of his natural third base position, and outfielder Ray-Patrick Didder, whose light-hitting profile is offset by his double-plus speed and plus defense, enough so that he should have some major league utility.

I’ll be back next week after spending some time sitting on a recent Connecticut Tigers series in the freshly started Short-Season A New York-Penn League.

 

2080 Prospect Spotlights
High A Florida State League
Florida Fire Frogs vs. Tampa Yankees
June 19-21, 2017

 

Touki Toussaint, RHP, Braves (High A Florida, Florida State League)
Ht/Wt: 6’3”/185 lbs.   B/T: R/R     Age (As of April 1st, 2017): 20y, 10m

Acquired by the Braves, along with Bronson Arroyo (RHP, Reds), and Phil Gosselin (3B, Pirates) in June of 2015, Toussaint is a former 2014 first-rounder (#16 overall) whose arsenal has backed up from what I have seen in past views. There’s still some projection here as he is just 20 years old, but he has lost some fastball velocity from previous years’ 94-to-95 mph to a wider band of 88-to-94 mph – with most readings at a fringe-average 91 mph in this view. He looks to still be searching for the right mix of velocity and control to be effective as a starter, but the results have been poor so far this season.

His overall command and control profile continue to be a negative factor, with a well-below-average 4.0 BB/9 rate, which while trending in the right direction (4.92 in 2015, 4.82 in 2016), is still not enough to support a starter’s profile. And when he is around the zone this year, the hits-per-nine innings have bumped up to 9.6 H/9, up from roughly 7.2 H/9 for the past two seasons, which combine for an awful lot of traffic on the bases to work himself out of trouble.

So while the profile has taken some hits this year, I still see some upside with Toussaint – but as a starter it has become a high-risk profile. He does throw with a free-and-easy arm action, and works from the stretch with a long-and-quick arm action, and in a bullpen role, his stuff could play up while limiting the command/control factor in shorter stints. The fastball and its movement could play up a couple of ticks to become a plus offering with average arm-side tail and sink, and his curveball is projectable to an above-average pitch, with 11-to-5 shape and solid two-plane depth. His changeup also projects above average as well, with good feel for the pitch and late fade that is particularly effective versus left-handed hitters.

He’s got time to figure it out given his youth, so the arsenal could still project to a high-risk ceiling of a Role 50, number four-or-five starter if he can reign in the command and control profile to at least fringe-average grades, but at present I see a more realistic role as a Role 40 middle reliever, capable of handling the sixth-to-seventh innings.

 

A.J. Minter, LHP, Braves (High A Florida, Florida State League)
Ht/Wt: 6’0”/205 lbs.      B/T: L/L                  Age (As of April 1st, 2017): 23y, 7m

Minter is returning from an extended stay on the D.L. from April 13 to June 12 spanning 56 games following an adductor groin strain, which came on the heels of another extended D.L. stint thanks to Tommy John surgery in 2015 and being limited to just 34 2/3 innings of work in 2016. Finally healthy, his 2017 campaign included a five-appearance stop – all for one-inning – with the Fire Frogs, and I viewed two of those appearances versus the Tampa Yankees.

A Competitive Balance B (second round) pick out of Texas A&M, Minter showed a plus fastball siting 93-to-94 mph with plus movement, working it with arm side tail and some sink. His cutter is a deceptive offering, coming in at 88-to-90 mph with short, quick darting action. He also will throw the occasional slider in the 84-to-86 mph range that flashed average movement.

Minter is aggressive in the zone with the arsenal with plus command, and through these views he had yet to walk a batter while striking out 10 in six innings of work, which is a continuation of his 12.2 SO/9 rate that he had across three levels in his 2016 campaign. While he shows above-average swing-and-miss stuff, his future is entirely dependent upon his ability to stay healthy at this point, and build up his arm strength and professional innings without further setbacks. If he clears those hurdles, he could move through the system quickly, and he has the stuff to compete out of the bullpen as a future Role 60 set-up man, with a floor of a Role 55, above-average bullpen piece. His quick promotion to Mississippi on June 27 after just six innings of 2017 work under his belt shows that the Braves’ front office is watching his progress closely.

 

Austin Riley, 3B, Braves (High A Florida, Florida State League)
Ht/Wt: 6’3”/230 lbs.   B/T: R/R     Age (As of April 1st, 2017): 19y, 11m

A competitive balance round A pick (#41 overall) out of DeSoto Central HS (Southaven, MS) in 2015, Riley is a projectable third baseman with an above-average hit toll and plus power profile. Riley has solid mechanics at the dish who can be a dangerous hitter when he gets extended, generating good barrel exit with loft and leverage, and showing solid overall feel for the barrel.

He can be exposed when he tries to handle pitches in on his hands, particularly fastballs, which are where the majority of his swing-and miss comes from, and led to 147 strikeouts in his first full season of pro ball at Class A Rome last year (27%). The strikeout numbers are being offset by the power profile, and close to half of his 2016 hits went for extra bases (39 doubles, 2 triples, and 20 home runs among his 134 hits), while he slashed .271/.324./479 for the year. He has dropped the strikeout rate a bit this year to 23%, while the power continues to come, with 11 home runs for the Fire Frogs.

On defense, Riley is a stiff, upright fielder at third base, with fringe-average hands and fielding actions. While he has average athleticism, he does need to work on his agility and first-step quickness, which limits his range some, but it is playable for the position presently. He makes up for some of the defensive limitations with a plus arm, but given his big frame and the possibility of some additional bulk coming as he matures, a move across the diamond should be expected, or perhaps even a move to right field with the plus arm. The potential with the bat is enough for me to see a solid Role 50, average everyday major leaguer, with a ceiling of a Role 55 above-average player settling in at first base, with the gap being attributed to his ability to adapt to his ultimate defensive home down the road.

 

Ray-Patrick Didder, CF/RF, Braves (High A Florida, Florida State League)
Ht/Wt: 6’0” 17 lbs.   B/T: R/R     Age (As of April 1st, 2017): 22y, 6m

Signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Aruba in 2014, Didder is a plus athlete with quick-twitch actions who projects as a Role 45 fourth outfielder capable of handling the OF-5 role of holding down center field. The Fire Frogs have been testing that athleticism all year, with Didder playing four positions, including 32 games in center field, 26 in right field, and six games each at shortstop and second base so far. I saw him play a game in center field and a game at shortstop during this homestand.

At the plate, Didder projects as a below-average hitter with well-below-average power who can draw his share of walks, as seen by the big delta between his average (.205) and OBP (.321), which is consistent with his numbers (.274/.387) last year at Class A Rome, which was his first full pro season. His weakness is in his mechanics, where he has trouble catching up to velocity because of a high hand position and a downer hitch in his swing, all from an open stance to make for lots of moving parts. His double-plus speed (4.1 seconds from home-to-first base) certainly helps him get on base and take the extra bag when he can reach the gaps, but his approach is basically to hunt his weakness – fastballs. It has led to a jump in his strikeout rate at the High A level (to 26%), after striking out in 17% of his plate appearances last year. Overall, there is limited projection for the hit tool.

On defense is where the profile is rooted, and he looks the part of a plus-graded center fielder with good instincts for the position. He showed plus reads and reactions and plus range thanks to his speed I my look. While he has only been tested in center field and right field to-date, he shows the tools to be able to handle all three outfield positions. Though a limited look at shortstop, he did not show the body control necessary to project as an infielder. In lieu of some tweaks to his mechanics and approach at the plate, the profile should top out as a defense-first extra outfielder in the big leagues, with limited potential with the bat.