The 19th-overall selection in this June’s MLB First-Year Player Draft, Dunn has met all expectations through his first 18 innings of work, allowing just one run and 13 hits over that span while striking out 19. After three no-hit innings this past Thursday against Vermont – a start in which the Boston College product struck out two out of every three players he faced – Dunn extended his current scoreless streak to 12 innings.
The hard-throwing righty began his junior season at BC as the Eagles’ closer before converting to the weekend rotation in April, and he never looking back. Capable of kissing the upper 90s in relief, Dunn sat, and continues to sit, comfortably in the 92-to-95 mph velocity band as a starter thanks to a loose arm and motion that affirms his athleticism and quick-twitch actions. He backs up an easy plus heater with two distinct breaking balls – a two-plane upper-70s curveball with solid shape and average bite, and a quality low-80s slider – each of which project as at least average offerings. He rounds out the repertoire with an effective mid-80s changeup that features sharp dive and good deception off of his slot and arm speed.
There’s still a bit of the unknown with Dunn, as the righty is a relatively recent convert to the starting role. Even after a dominant performance over multiple months leading up to the draft, it’s yet to be determined what his stuff looks like 15, 20, and 25 starts into a full season, and his pro outings thus far have been limited to two or three innings an outing. The signs all point to an arm that should be able to handle the load, given his athleticism, ease of action, and quality of his four-pitch mix. He’s still fine-tuning a more paced delivery that debuted last summer on the Cape, which has helped to drastically improve his control over the past twelve months and limit his free passes to hitters. Dunn projects as a quality mid-rotation arm, and perhaps more if he can show an ability to maintain his stuff over the course of a full-season’s schedule.