The Potential Tools: 60 FB, 60 CB, 50 CH, 55 Command

Strengths: Big size and strength; above-average athleticism; three-way FB; works low 90s and can touch higher; downhill plane; natural arm-side run, can sink it and cut it in lower velocity band; CB is bat missing pitch; 11-to-5 shape with tight spin and deep depth; quality pitchability and control; CH flashes above average with sinking action; FB disguise on the pitch; added SL; short, tight break with some tilt; works in low 80s; athleticism and control project command to be above average.

Weaknesses: More control than true command; tends to overthrow CH; becomes firm and easily hittable; fastball velocity can sit in lower velo band later in starts; slider is still raw and needs development; injury history and suspension on resume; limited upper-minors experience.

Role Ceiling: 55; #3 SP.

Risk: Moderate; command needs to be refined; CH/SL need more consistency.

Summary: Coming out of high school in 2011, Guerreri showed an upper-90s fastball and the potential for two plus secondaries, which led to him being drafted in the first round by the Rays. A suspension, some makeup concerns, and a Tommy John surgery later, concerns continued that Guerrieri might have lost the chance of being a valuable player. He silenced those doubters with a very impressive 2015 campaign across two levels.

Guerrieri doesn’t feature that premium velocity anymore, but his fastball still works in the low 90s, a sharp 11-to-5 plus curveball with depth, a fading average changeup that plays well off of his fastball, and a new slider with short, tight break. With his consistent delivery, arm slot and plus athleticism, Guerrieri has put himself back into the conversation as a one of the top Rays’ pitching prospects, and if his issues are truly in the past, he could reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.