Feature Photo: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Rockies
Dave DeFreitas is back from his East Coast road trip for 2080, and files spotlights on Tampa Bay Rays right-handers Jacob Faria and Jaime Schultz, while Spencer Hansen takes a look at 1B/DH D.J. Peterson out at Seattle’s Triple-A Tacoma affiliate. Also, Nick J. Faleris checks in with updates on two shortstop prospects currently seasoning in A-ball, the Twins’ 2014 first-round pick Nick Gordon, playing at High A Fort Myers, as well as 2015 first-rounder Brendan Rodgers from the Rockies, who is currently playing at Class A Asheville.
Triple A Prospect Spotlights
Jacob Faria, RHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham, International League)
Ht/Wt: 6’4” / 200 B/T: R/R Age: 23 yrs, 0m
Drafted in the 10th round in 2011 by Tampa Bay, Faria has made good on his opportunity in pro ball to this point, showing ingredients that may make him an asset at the major league level in the not-too-distant future. Faria is every bit of his 6’4” listing and he utilizes his lanky frame to create good angle, and creates some deception in the delivery thanks to his short arm action in back. He relies on his deception and his circle-change, a combination has been effective to this point.
The circle-change is his best pitch, with future plus potential. He gets some late dive and shows some feel, locating it both for strikes and down, out of the zone for put-away. While he does have below-average command, his deception affords him some margin for error. He sits 89-to-90 mph with the fastball, which is also below-average velocity wise, but with how the arm works, it looks more like 92 mph to the hitter. He is consistently around the zone which is generally a good thing, but is inconsistent to spots–which obviously works against him when he misses over the plate.
He has an average of 9.2 Ks/9 thus far in his career, and going into 2016 was coming off of his best year as a pro where he had 11.5 Ks/9 across 75.1 IP after being promoted to Double-A Montgomery halfway through the 2015 season. He only gave up 103 hits through 149 .2 IP between High A and Double-A in 2015, and this year he maintained that success at Double-A, giving up 63 hits through 83.1 IP before being promoted to Durham, and giving up 7.8 hits/9 through 32.1 IP. 32 innings is a small sample size and it’s not a surprise to see a player struggle for a bit at a new level.
However, what is mildly concerning is the 4.2 BB/9 that he has shown at Triple-A, and while it is only a small increase from his Double-A rate of 3.9 BB/9, I think it is an indication that he is slightly more wary of making mistakes in the zone vs. better lineups and perhaps nibbling more than he has prior. He also has a pronounced fly ball rate at 0.81 in 2016 (same as career rate), something I believe is a product of him not extending consistently in his delivery.
I can see Faria making some improvements, and possibly getting to fringe-average fastball command, however I think it is a lot to ask for him to go through a lineup three times relying mostly on deception and a plus circle changeup, while living up in the zone with the fastball. A good deal of his deception comes from him staying closed with the front side, something which, in turn, makes it more difficult for him to extend and locate to the glove side. High walk rates for a fly ball pitcher usually translates into bloated HR numbers at the next level, so being able to roll him out situationally would help curtail that.
His strengths are things that I believe will play far better in shorter stints at the next level, and when coupled with a plus secondary pitch could end up making him a valuable mid- to possibly late-inning arm. With the Rays toiling at the bottom of the A.L. East Division in 2016 and Faria being on the 40-man roster, I would expect him to get a serious look when rosters expand in September. – Dave DeFreitas
Jaime Schultz, RHP, Rays (Triple-A Durham, International League)
Ht/Wt: 5’10” / 200 B/T: R/R Age: 25 yrs, 1m
A 14th-round pick in 2013, Schultz has done two things very well throughout his short pro career – strike guys out and limit his hits allowed. Unfortunately for him, he has not be nearly as successful at limiting his walks allowed or at getting ground-balls. Schultz has a free and easy delivery with plus velo on his fastball (93-to-95 mph) to go with a serviceable breaking ball. When he is on, he can be overpowering, and generate significant swing and miss. Since being drafted, he has averaged 11.1 Ks/9 and 7.1 Hits/9, including 11.2 Ks/9 in 2015, his first season at Double-A, and 10.6 Ks/9 thus far in 2016, his first taste of Triple-A action. He has also put up a .226 BAA through 108.1 IP for Durham, up slightly from the .216 mark he posted for Montgomery last year.
So how is a 25-year-old that’s putting up those kind of numbers not in the big leagues for a last place club AND not even on the 40-man roster? Well, the career 5.2 BB/9 is the first big clue. He has made some improvements in 2016, posting a 4.5 BB/9 over 108.1 IP down from the 6.0 BB/9 through 135 IP last season – but after seeing him throw against Toledo on 7/27, it is apparent that while he has increased the number of strikes he is throwing, the number of quality strikes is still shockingly low. He was behind in the count often, and it took him 108 pitches to get through 5.2 IP. He showed that he has the stuff to battle back from bad counts – he struck out seven over that span – but he hit his spot maybe one out of every four pitches, missing up in the zone often with the fastball where the pitch tends to flatten out and not have the same life it gets when down.
He is a strong kid, well put together with fairly simple mechanics. He doesn’t require a ton of effort to generate the velocity and held his velo well late into his outing. That arm strength carries over to the breaking ball, where he generates some tight spin and occasional hard finish. While he showed above average with the curveball, it was wildly inconsistent, and he really had to back off in order to throw it for strikes.
So even though he is getting old to be considered a prospect, he didn’t sign until he was 22 and he has moved moved up a level each year since then. It has not been the rapid rise you hope for with a college arm, but in the 14th round, the arm strength alone should be seen as a win for the organization. That is not to say that he is ready to be thrown into the fire in Tampa Bay, but if the walks continue to go in the right direction and he can at least show the better breaking ball for strikes, I believe that he will be able to replicate the swing and miss at the next level. Ultimately I think he is a bullpen guy, and the sooner he makes that move the better. He has match-up stuff and in shorter looks the below-average command may be slightly less of a factor. While he is yet to be put on the 40-man, I would not at all be surprised to see Tampa Bay add him in September to get a better feel for what they have going into 2017. – Dave DeFreitas
D.J. Peterson, 1B/DH, Mariners, (Triple-A Tacoma, Pacific Coast League)
Ht/Wt: 6’1” / 210 B/T: R/R Age: 24 yrs, 7 m
Peterson was picked #12 overall by the Mariners in 2013, and at the time he was regarded as one of the best college power bats available after slugging 18 homers in his junior campaign at University of New Mexico. The selection of Peterson was true to Jack Zduriencik’s style of stockpiling power bats, such as Mike Zunino and Alex Jackson in Seattle, and Corey Hart, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun, when he was Milwaukee’s scouting director.
Peterson stands tall in the box, bat resting on his shoulder until the pitch is delivered. He’ll lift the bat off his shoulder with bat cap facing the sky and hands letter-high. A subtle toe tap initiates swing, which is compact with a short load straight back. He has a slight upper-cut to the swing that creates leverage and lift, and it manifests in above-average, over-the-fence game power. He’s patient within the zone, at times to a fault, taking pitches many hitters would be aggressive on. He’ll tend to fly open on pitches on the outer half and roll over some outs, but in this viewing he did make adjustments and reached outside for a pitch to hit a liner to right field later in the game.
Peterson climbed to Class A ball in his first year as a pro before his 2013 campaign came to an end after being drilled in the jaw and being placed on the disabled list. Peterson had a rebound season in 2014 between High A and Double-A, slashing .297/.360/.552 in 123 games. As good as 2014 was for Peterson, 2015 was the opposite, where he hit .223 between Double-A and Triple-A before his season was shortened due to an Achilles injury.
Peterson began 2016 in Double-A Jackson and for the better part of three months put up pedestrian numbers (.213/.256/.350 in April and .267/.350/.429 in May before having a torrid June, hitting .323/.391/.604, and eventually got bumped to Triple-A Tacoma on June 29. During this stretch, he started seeing the ball better, stood taller in the box (adjustment made by coaching staff in Jackson), and showed more consistency at the plate, flashing some of the raw tools which the M’s were so high on when they drafted him.
Defensively, Peterson recently made the switch to first base given that Kyle Seager is holding down third base in Seattle for the foreseeable future. Peterson showed inexperience playing the position, stretching too early for throws at times in addition to limited range and missing a few easy picks. Despite shortcomings, I think he’ll be able to play first base adequately because of his willingness to learn the nuances of the position and improve.
Peterson displayed well-below-average speed, running 4.50 seconds home-to-first. Doesn’t profile as basestealer, and isn’t someone who will take the extra base.
Peterson is still considered by many a top prospect for the Mariners, and he could still be an impact player for them, but I don’t think he’ll live up to the lofty expectations put on him when he was drafted. M’s fans will probably not see Peterson in Seattle in 2016, but he figures to compete for a spot in spring training next year, especially since Dae-Ho Lee is set to become a free agent at season’s end. Peterson and newly-acquired 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach could form a nice platoon in 2017 if Lee isn’t re-signed. – Spencer Hansen
Single A Prospect Spotlights
Nick Gordon, SS, Twins (High A Fort Myers, Florida State League)
Ht/Wt: 6’0” / 160 B/T: L/R Age: 20 yrs, 9m
Gordon’s 2016 can be more accurately categorized as steady growth than a full on breakout, but that growth has the former fifth-overall selection ready to debut at Double-A next spring as a 21-year-old talent knocking on the door of his big league career. The former Florida prep product has seen his profile blossom largely as prognosticated by amateur evaluators leading into the 2014 MLB First-Year Player Draft, showing solid and steady tools across the board, and an altitudinous feel for the game in the field, on the bases and in the box.
In his most recent series with Fort Myers, hosting the Phillies’ High A Clearwater affiliate, Gordon showcased his penchant for hard contact, going 7-for-16 with a pair of doubles. Gordon also showed the aggressiveness in the box that has helped to limit his on-base production some, as the lefty-swinging shortstop swung early and often, resulting in a number of first and second pitch hits but also a number of instances in which he was forced to navigate through his at-bats working from behind in the count.
With a solid feel for the barrel and understanding of the strike zone, Gordon should have the fundamental foundation in place for a top-of-the-order bat to emerge, and he is young enough and intelligent enough to put developmental focus into working more free passes as he climbs through the upper levels. He should be ready for a cup of coffee by next summer, but is more likely to get a serious look as a big league contributor in 2018, which would still have him debuting at the precocious age of 22. He profiles as a potential first-division regular with the make-up and acumen to tease enough out of his talent to make some All-Star teams. – Nick J. Faleris
Brendan Rodgers, SS, Rockies (Class A Asheville, South Atlantic League)
Ht/Wt: 6’0” / 180 B/T: R/R Age: 19 yrs, 11m
After starting the season with a monster April, slashing .329/.411/.582 over 90 PA’s, and following that with a solid May, slashing .280/.325/.493 over 80 PA’s, Rodgers has cooled at the plate, slashing .256/.320/.409 over his last 226 PA’s. Additionally, the home/road splits are striking, which is not wholly surprising given Asheville’s tendency to play as one of the better offensive environs in the minors. In 190 PA’s at home, Rodgers is slashing .308/.368/.552, while tallying nine of his 14 home runs and 15 of his 25 doubles. On the road, Rodgers is slashing a less impressive .249/.317/.384, including just five of his 14 homers and 10 of his 25 doubles. Put another way, Rodgers is seeing about a 20% decrease in batting average, a 15% decrease in on-base percentage, and a 45% decrease in isolated power away from Asheville.
The scouting paints a more hopeful picture, however, as Rodgers continues to show quick hands, some natural loft, and good raw pop at the plate. He also tracks well and can identify spin, helping to cut down on empty swings and limit his strikeout numbers. There’s lots of developing strength in his core and trunk, making a plus power projection one of the easier calls an evaluator will be asked to make, though the big bat speed brings with it some unwieldiness in the swing. Rodgers’s big cuts can cause him to lose balance through his weight transfer at times, pulling the barrel off-plane and resulting in softer contact than should be produced based on the raw materials he is working with. There’s plenty of time for the talented young hitter to refine as he continues to log reps and climb the ranks, however, and he remains one of the more exciting offensive prospects in the lower minors. It’s still a question whether his thickening lower half and average mobility will force Rodgers off of shortstop, but the offensive ceiling is high enough to be impactful at both third base and second, should such a shift transpire. – Nick J. Faleris
New Content at 2080
Reports
Several new reports now up in 2080’s Report Library.
Video
Eleven new prospect videos since last week’s minor league update! All found here.
