Greene is a hands-down power-armed starter who has a floor of a solid number-three and a ceiling of a number-two starter in the big leagues if his control and command can come around as he matures. He’s on his second tour of the Eastern League this year after a mid-season bump to New Hampshire, where he finished the year with 12 starts, and 68 2/3 innings where he averaged 4.3 BB/9 and 6.3 SO/9, and those numbers are largely unchanged this year though his first seven starts, at 4.6 and 7.0, respectively.
The 22-year-old Greene pitches from and abbreviated windup, with a shallow wrap on the back side, and with a quick arm and good extension out front. He gets good angle from his 6-foot-3 frame to generate downhill plane, and the ball really jumps out of his hand, causing some deception in the delivery as well. There are some flaws in the delivery that are cause for concern regarding the overall control/command profile, including some slight recoil in the delivery, and a plant foot hitch/spinout to the first-base side that can make it tough to repeat consistently, and seems at the root of the well-below-average walk rates he’s put up over his last 187 2/3 innings pitched from 2016-to-present.
He works his three-pitch mix aggressively in the strike zone, and his control was solid in my viewing May 6, where he walked two and struck out two, and allowed just four hits over 6 2/3 innings in a 4-2 Fisher Cat win over Binghamton. Greene features a two- and four-seam fastball that is an overall double-plus pitch, with his velocity consistently sitting 95-to-96 mph on his four-seamer and touching 99 mph on occasion. The two-seamer sat in the 93-to-94 mph range. The fastball has plus movement to-boot, with run and tail to both sides of the plate, and with heavy sink and late life. He showed solid in-zone command of the offering and kept it down in the zone to the point of getting 15 outs on ground balls just off of the fastball. His curveball is plus, with 11-to-5 break, and sitting 77-to-79 mph with good two-plane depth and bite. He seldom needed to get to his third offering, a plus changeup that sat 84-to-86 mph with late fading action and some tumble to the arm-side, and with excellent velocity separation from the fastball. The changeup was equally effective versus both RHH & LHH.
Overall, the profile is improving for the 22-year-old Greene, and he shows the feel for pitching as well as the athleticism to make the adjustments that will be necessary to get his command/control profile up to at least a fringe-average grade, if not average – it’s usually the last piece of the puzzle to come around on live power arms like his. He’s working deeper into his starts and he should be able to make the adjustments – repeating his delivery and staying online to the plate in particular – to keep moving through the system quickly. He projects comparably to Kevin Gausman (RHP, Orioles) at the major league level when it all comes together.